Kalabagh Dam: Why We Must Build It

According to the Indus Basin Treaty signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, we had to surrender the three eastern rivers of Sutlej, Bias and Ravi, and were allowed to build reservoirs and dams on the Western rivers of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Pakistan was forced to accept an unjust principle of replacing perennial stream water, with man made reservoir water, which had inherent complications.

Today we are facing acute water shortage, and are facing El Nino effect as well, due to climatic changes resulting from the elimination of certain biological organisms. Our population growth rate is around 2%, which is one of the highest in the region. It is estimated that by 2025, Pakistan would become the fourth most populous country in the world. Imagine how hard it would become to feed such a big population with the shortage of resources, when we are already facing problems in providing basic necessities to the existing ones.

Indian Role

Since independence India has been creating problems for Pakistan in terms of the natural resources. For instance the Indus Basin Treaty and now a barrage on river Chenab, through which India would be able to stop or regulate water flow to Pakistan whenever it desires against the provisions of the treaty. On river Jhelum we have already built Mangla dam, which provides electricity and irrigation water for the entire country, through a network of barrages and link canals etc. Leaving these two rivers, the only other dependable source which seems to be outside the grip of India is the river Indus, over which we have built Tarbela dam, which stores only 15% of its water obtained mainly through snow melts in the Himalaya.

Silting of Dams

However the problem is that the lake of Tarbela is silting heavily and this silt load is estimated at 554000 tons per day. This amount of silt cannot be taken out from any reservoir; even if it is supposedly taken out, the problem would be where and how to store it. A silt delta has been formed in the reservoir having width between 31-65 Kms and 68 meters deep, located at 14 kms from the main embankment due to the sedimentation process. WAPDA has been able to contain movement of this silt delta so far, which otherwise could have moved in and choked all power generating turbines due to the seismic activity in the area. The danger is still there and in this regard Tarbela will not be able to serve as a multi-purpose reservoir and will only be suitable for irrigation purposes.

  

Controversy Surrounding Kalabagh Dam

It is stated that by the time Bhasha dam is completed, in 2016, the usefulness of Tarbela would almost have gone. The only economic option left at our disposal is Kalabagh dam, which is already late and has become controversial mainly due to socio-political misunderstandings, selfish assumptions, misgivings and apprehensions amongst the people of various provinces in the country.

Ironically, all the governments starting from late Z.A Bhutto, in order to lengthen their stay in power, have always avoided this technically feasible and economically sound option, which was declared to be a better site than Tarbela in the 1960s. Tarbela was brought on line first due to political considerations and preferences. It is, therefore, natural to think that national interests have been compromised. Jeopardized and manipulated for the sake of handful people with personal interest.

By year 2050, about 2/3 of the world population could be plagued by water scarcity. It is interesting that while water scarcity is strictly becoming severe, yet in most water-scarce regions large quantities of water flow into the sea remain unutilized.

Technical and Socio-Political Issues

The constraints in the implementation of Kalabagh dam can be describes as technical and socio-political. Almost all technical issues and concerns raised by the upper and lower reparians have been taken care of in the shape of design adjustments, while the socio-political factors remain unsolved to date, and are being exploited by those having vested interests. There are also misplaced fears in the general public of flooding of Peshawar valley and Nowshera along with negative impact on the drainage in areas of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi. Lower reparians feared desertification of Sindh, non-availability of surplus water to fill the Kalabagh reservoir, negative effects on cultivation of riverian areas, sea water intrusion, mangrove forests and diminishing of fish resources below Kotri. 

Benefits of Building Kalabagh Dam

Concerns regarding Kalabagh Dam have been fully analyzed by WAPDA an almost all of them are not sustainable considering the magnitude of benefits available to a large population of this cursed country. Benefits also include availability of water for entire Rabi, sowing and maturing of Kharif crops, 2600MW electricity and flood alleviation between downstream and Indus-Punjab confluence. The Water Appointment Accord of 1991 reflects consensus of all the four provinces over issues of new storage on Indus and other rivers. This should serve as the starting point for the construction of Kalabagh dam. The World Bank has funded projects like SCARP and NDP, which were to the tune of billions of dollars, but they failed to bring about desired economic benefits to Pakistan, because of wrong assumptions, corruption, malpractices and misplaced interests of the World Bank managers.

The severity of recent flooding in Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa is a direct result of excess water coming from the rivers. Kalabagh Dam would have prevented this catastrophe. Dams like Kalabagh would allow for better water management. Dams could direct the water flow to the world’s largest canal system and take it away from the flood pains. The loss of lives of around 500 people must be attributed to those who have opposed Kalabagh Dam and other such projects.  Nationalist political parties in Sind and KP are major culprits. Due to their opposition to the dams for selfish personal gains, they must be taken to the task by those who have suffered as a result.

There is no denying the fact that in addition to bringing adown population growth rate and making Kalabagh dam, other feasible reservoir sites must also be exploited to utilize the invaluable Indus water, for irrigation and power generation, which flows almost unused into the Arabian Sea during summers. This is our lifeline and the only option for our economic survival.

Therefore, introduction of effective demand management through adaptation of mechanism for forecasting water availability is needed for adjusting water demand to water availability and developing criteria for water allocation.       

Economic Impact of Floods

Pakistan is suffering from the worst flooding disaster in living memory. What will be the economic effect, in the short, medium and long terms of this tragedy? How it will affect the government’s budget deficit and the growth rate? What can be done to mitigate the economic crisis? Following are some critical analysis of the economic impact of floods.

The sharp cutback in demand for a range of goods and services by those affected will largely be neutralized by the heightened demand for certain basic goods being provided through the relief effort – particularly food items like drinking water, dry rations like pulses, sugar, cooking oil, biscuits, etc., thereby maintaining a momentum of growth in the economy. However, unless some of the food items are imported from abroad (which could worsen the trade deficit unless these goods come in form of aid), we could witness higher food price. Inflation of this kind would hurt the poor badly throughout Pakistan and more so in non-agricultural population in rural areas which has to purchase its food from the market.

A large additional demand for some goods like tents, blankets, cotton sheets, etc., and construction materials – like cement, steel and wood and bricks will push up production in these sub-sectors of industry, thereby stimulating growth.

The allocations for aid operations financed from government funds, the compensation that will eventually have to be paid for every dead or injured person, displaced families, lost animals plus the cost of restoring some basic communications infrastructure will increase the budget deficit by atleast half a percentage point of the GDP, which should be affordable and might scale the inflation to more frightening heights. The deficit would have had to be raised further but for the overwhelming response of Pakistanis (both at home and abroad) and the international community and the capacity limits of the system to absorb and efficiently utilize large inflows of funds over the remaining part of the present financial year.

The long term economic impact poses other serious challenges. Rehabilitating shattered and displaced families and generating economic activity through restoration of the ramshackle infrastructure, considering the decades over which it had been built, will require massive sums of money. If the bulk of this funding is not provided by external sources, the government will have to increase its budget deficit to much higher levels over the next few years (which will keep the rate of inflation high) unless it can mobilize adequate resources by raising taxes, which is a politically daunting task.

The restoration of the destroyed infrastructure will be a long haul, partly because of the scale of the task and the volume of resources that will be required. And partly because of the absorptive capacity of the government machinery and the time and effort that will be needed.

While the impact on economic growth and related indicators (barring inflation) is not likely to be super serious in the short term; the long term requirements for alleviating the pain of this devastation are daunting and their outcomes are uncertain and difficult to predict.

Moreover, the indirect impact has already started appearing on the common life of people, as millions of people have donated their savings to help their brethren who are facing the devastation of the floods. Newspaper reports indicate that Eid shopping in the month of Ramadan, considered as best month for business and economic activity, has slowed down considerably. A huge burden on government’s spending can be perceived that would certainly hit a lot of new and ongoing projects. This would result in slowing down of the economy, besides increasing the budget deficit.

What Can Be Done?

No institution or country is perfect. There is always a scope for improvement in every sphere of life. Economic stability by itself is a gigantic task, specially, in a society so used to financial and fiscal indiscipline, socio-political disorder, corruption and mal administration sponsored by political elite of sitting governments.

Today Pakistan is in grave economic crisis and immediate measures need to be taken in order to come out of financial debacle the country is now facing. These measures must be home grown and not taken at the behest of pressure of international donor agencies. Visionary and revolutionary macroeconomic stabilization policies are needed to be taken to turn this disaster into an opportunity. Start by cutting defense expenditures. Downsize the inefficient and large cabinet. Cut the expenditures of Presidency, Prime Minister and ministers. End the nonsense foreign visits by national dignitaries. Promote and implement good governance and eradicate corruption. Introduce and implement comprehensive land reforms. Introduce structural reforms to remove distortion in the economy. Widen the tax net. Empower the institutions and remove their decay. Last but not least, learn to stand on our own feet instead of begging. Ask for trade not aid.

Pakistan Flood Crisis and Disaster Management

Pakistan Flood Crisis and Disaster Management by Shamyl|Chowrangi

            Family members remove furnishings from their flood affected home  in Nowshera, Pakistan.

            Photograph by: Daniel Berehulak, Getty Images

Interventions are needed after a disaster occurs. In many ways, this is the most difficult period for the victims. Disaster management requires commitment by the various role players. Therefore, capacity must be build to handle such events and training programs are essential. Duplication of efforts should be minimized and financial resources properly controlled. It should be important to note that disasters are non-routine events that require non-routine response. Government couldn’t rely on normal procedures to implement appropriate responses. They will need to learn special skills, techniques, and attitudes in dealing with the disasters. They will need a policy based on action plans rather than having the policy first. Pakistan needs leaders who can work with people where things happen rather than working with a safe remote control effort.

If this does not happen then people will develop further mistrust in the civilian government which is not good if the desire for democracy is to be cherished and strengthened. Democracy must appear to work; civilian institutions must appear efficient. Democracy will fail once again if the civilian administration does not cater to all needs of the citizens.

The only need of the time is proper management of the relief funds and for this the government assured has that Pakistan will ensure complete transparency in the utilization of funds raised for the flood victims. However, fund accounts to be used for rehabilitation and reconstruction must be made available to all donors for scrutiny. Such transparency could be assured through the availability of data to be subjected to external auditing.

Reconstruction of the devastated areas will be a long drawn out process. However, we need to develop a strategy of self-reliance rather than keep looking for continued international assistance in this respect. That is likely to dry up with the passing of time. Incidentally, some of us seem to think that it is the duty of the world to help us in such a calamity. This is not a justifiable expectation and merely created unnecessary disappointment. There is no such duty and we should no take the generosity of the international community for granted.

Pakistan Floods and International Community's Response

Prime Minister Gillani has said that the government has the ability and will to handle the challenge but needs assistance from the international community. Pakistan army is busy rescuing people. Helicopters can be seen flying above roofs of destroyed houses to pluck people stuck there. General Kayani himself is leading the rescue and relief operations. 

You won't find this video in the news

Whereas, the response from the international community is at best sluggish. However, the United States has responded immediately to Pakistan's call for assistance following the tragic and devastating floods that started on July 29. Their response has been consistent but relaxed at times.  The two pronged response includes both financial assistance and the immediate provision of urgently needed supplies and services, drawing on 'unique' U.S. capabilities. U.S. military helicopters supporting relief and rescue operations in partnership with the Pakistani military so far today have rescued approximately 916 people and transported 89,000 pounds of relief supplies.


It must be noted that the US government responded generously after 2005 earthquake. These efforts are commendable but the scale and magnitude of this disaster is much more — the landmass afflicted by flooding is 130,000 sq km in comparison with 30,000 sq km hit by the 2005 earthquake — and the number of people affected by the tragedy has already reached 14 millions and still growing. Given its potential, the international community and particularly the United States needs to do more to help the victims of the worst floods in loving memory.  If ever there was an opportunity to win the hearts and minds of Pakistanis, then this is it.


On a personal note, the Pakistan bashing, slanderous comments and abusive views regarding the flood victims are being made on the social media by many Indians. This is shameful act on their part. What happened to secularism and Gandhi's ideology of peace?

The Flood of the Century